Some Results Based on a Version of the Generalized Dynamic Entropies

We propose new dynamic measures of uncertainty based on the notion of generalized dynamic entropy introduced in Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2006). These can uniquely determine distribution functions in continuous and discrete cases, and the characterizations of some well-known distributions are provided. We also define some orderings and aging notions based on the generalized dynamic measures, and prove some of their properties, obtaining as corollaries results that have recently appeared in the literature.     

Generalized Kerridge’s inaccuracy measure for conditionally specified models

Recently, conditional Renyi’s divergence of order α and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures are studied by Navarro et al. (2014 Navarro, J., Sunoj, S.M., Linu, M.N. (2014). Characterizations of bivariate models using some dynamic conditional information divergence measures. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 43:1939–1948.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In the present article, a generalized dynamic conditional Kerridge’s inaccuracy measure is introduced, which can be represented as the sum of conditional Renyi’s divergence and Renyi’s entropy. Some useful bounds are obtained using the concept of likelihood ratio order. The results are extended to weighted distributions. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the monotonicity of the proposed measure. Characterizations for bivariate exponential conditional distribution are presented based on the proposed measure.     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.     

Semi-parametric segmentation of multiple series using a DP-Lasso strategy

We consider a semi-parametric approach to perform the joint segmentation of multiple series sharing a common functional part. We propose an iterative procedure based on Dynamic Programming for the segmentation part and Lasso estimators for the functional part. Our Lasso procedure, based on the dictionary approach, allows us to both estimate smooth functions and functions with local irregularity, which permits more flexibility than previous proposed methods. This yields to a better estimation of the functional part and improvements in the segmentation. The performance of our method is assessed using simulated data and real data from agriculture and geodetic studies. Our estimation procedure results to be a reliable tool to detect changes and to obtain an interpretable estimation of the functional part of the model in terms of known functions.     

人力资源管理与企业战略、绩效关系研究的演进——基于企业环境的变化

高度动态化的环境作为当前企业面临的最大问题,导致不可预测性的增强。这将直接影响战略的制定和执行。因此,这一环境下的企业如何保持战略实施有效性和竞争优势可持续性成为企业发展道路上的关键。而在战略与绩效的关系中,人力资源作为企业关键的战略性资源是企业运作的基础,其管理起了非常重要的作用。本文通过对已有文献的详细梳理,概括出两类研究类型:战略和人力资源的匹配;人力资源的配置管理与实现绩效的关系。柔性化思想的提出,使人力资源研究有了新的方向。在环境变动这一前提下,人力资源柔性化的管理区别于传统意义上的管理。本文以动态环境的背景,围绕人力资源、战略、绩效三者的关系提炼出整合的演进框架,以更好地指导未来人力资源相关的研究。     

中国与东盟国家双向投资关系分析及对策研究

东南亚国家与中国山水相连,文化习俗相近,双方商业合作和友好往来历史悠久,随着中国与东盟经济的快速发展以及自贸区的启动,双方合作空间进一步拓展,发展前景将更加广阔。投资合作是中国—东盟经贸合作的强大推动力,这得益于中国—东盟自由贸易区《投资协议》开始实施,双方开放投资市场,改善投资环境,降低贸易壁垒,为双方企业创造更多投资机会。     

邓小平社会主义核心价值观教育思想探析

以泰州某大跨度连续梁桥的静动载试验为例，建立ANSYS和桥梁博士模型进行静动力有限元数值计算。将试验结果与模型计算值进行比较，试验结果表明,该桥结构刚度和承载能力满足设计要求。     

Bilateral Donors' Efforts to Assess and Manage UN Agencies' Effectiveness: Seeking a Balance between Paris Principles and Domestic Accountability

Since the turn of the century, results orientation and performance measurement have become buzzwords in development aid. Bilateral donors are increasingly concerned about the effectiveness of core‐funded UN specialised agencies, funds and programmes, through which they channel a substantial part of their funds. While the logic for increased monitoring is clear, it is less evident how to assess this information for purposes of accountability, performance‐based funding and governance. This article describes the general evolution in this area and discusses two major initiatives to harmonise and align bilateral assessments, using case‐study material from three bilateral donors (Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK) with clearly diverging performance‐management cultures, and exploring the extent to which they rely upon joint and aligned initiatives.     

对等理论与进口商标的翻译

好的商标翻译不仅可以为企业带来好的第一印象,而且可以对产品的销售起到很大的推动作用。尤金奈达的对等翻译理论在进口商标的翻译中有可应用性及可操作性。在该理论指导下翻译进口商标时应采取不同的策略。不仅要达到语言功能上的对等,也要具有对等的经济效益。     

舆论危机的异化极化效应研究

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络媒体逐渐成为舆论生成、传播和交锋的主阵地,舆论危机的形成及其异化也成为日益突出的社会风险问题.本文以舆论的异化演化机理为研究对象,通过梳理典型事件舆论话题的异化过程,对其基本内涵、表现形式和演化模式等进行系统总结.随后,研究以舆论超网络模型为基础,借鉴社会影响理论的基本原则,提出舆论异化机理的极化算法,并对其具体流程进行解析和实现.最后,本文以“7·23甬温动车事故”为例,对舆论危机的异化极化过程和影响因素进行系统仿真和实证分析.